By Sven Ove Hansson, Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn
This e-book describes argumentative instruments and methods that may be used to lead coverage judgements below stipulations of significant uncertainty. Contributing authors discover equipment from philosophical research and specifically argumentation research, exhibiting the way it can be utilized to systematize discussions approximately coverage concerns regarding nice uncertainty.
The first a part of the paintings explores how one can deal in a scientific manner with decision-making whilst there's plural views at the determination challenge, besides unknown outcomes of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation instruments can be utilized for prioritizing between doubtful risks, for picking out how judgements might be framed, for selecting an appropriate timeframe for a call, and for systematically picking between diverse choice concepts. Case reviews are awarded within the moment a part of the publication, displaying argumentation in perform within the components of weather geoengineering, water governance, man made biology, nuclear waste, and monetary markets. in a single instance, argumentation research is utilized to proposals to unravel the weather challenge with a variety of technological manipulations of the normal weather process, equivalent to vast dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after an intensive research of this sort of concept, doubt is still to whether all of the capability hazards were pointed out. In such discussions, traditional threat research doesn't have a lot to give a contribution because it presupposes that the hazards were pointed out, while the argumentative method of uncertainty administration can be utilized to systematize discussions.
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Additional resources for The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis: Reasoning about Uncertainty
For instance, it is often helpful to clarify whether different uncertainties in a decision problem can be removed, if the time and resources needed to do so are available, or whether they are irreparable. Some uncertainties can be reduced or eliminated through the collection of more information, whereas others cannot, often since they concern issues that the inherent indeterminacy of complex systems makes inaccessible to human knowledge. Some uncertainties, for instance about values or decision framing may be eliminable through decisions or negotiations, whereas others are not.
Geo-engineering to confine climate change: Is it at all feasible? Climatic Change, 77, 229–234. 1007/s10584-006-9133-3. Betz, G. (2010). What is the worst case? The methodology of possibilistic prediction. Analyse & Kritik, 32, 87–106. Betz, G. (2012). The case for climate engineering research: An analysis of the “arm the future” argument. Climatic Change, 111, 473–485. 1007/s10584-011-0207-5. Betz, G. (2016). Accounting for possibilities in decision making. In S. O. Hansson & G. ), The argumentative turn in policy analysis.
O. Hansson, G. 1007/978-3-319-30549-3_3 39 40 G. Brun and G. Betz soon as a decision problem becomes a bit more complex – for example in terms of predictive uncertainties, the variety of outcomes to consider, the temporal structure of the decision problem, or the variety of values that bear on the decision (see Hansson and Hirsch Hadorn 2016). Hence we need to analyse policy arguments and to make explicit which scientific findings and normative assumptions they presume, how the various arguments are related to each other and which standpoints the opponents in a debate may reasonably hold.
The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis: Reasoning about Uncertainty by Sven Ove Hansson, Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn