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Healthcare is assumed to increase on a macro-level, due to a surge in hospitalizations based on the CBO model. 2 billion in losses ■ Projected Number of Lives Lost: 30,000* ■ Projected Number of Sick Workers [3 weeks of work lost (with 50 weeks of work per year) from those who are either ill, fear the risk of infection at work, or need to take care of sick family members]: 1,381,000* * Note: “Projected GDP Loss from Pandemic” may differ slightly from the sum of the projected impact from the workforce, industries, and trade due to rounding.

More precise numbers were used for the calculations in the model analysis. Alaska: Potential GDP Losses by Industry During a Severe Flu Pandemic** Private Industry/Government Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance^^ Real estate, rental, and leasing Professional and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Educational services^^ Health care and social assistance++ Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services, except government Government 2005 Annual GDP (Rounded to millions of dollars) 357,000,000 10,672,000,000 401,000,000 1,932,000,000 909,000,000 786,000,000 1,805,000,000 3,951,000,000 997,000,000 1,211,000,000 3,035,000,000 1,361,000,000 122,000,000 672,000,000 117,000,000 2,095,000,000 290,000,000 981,000,000 630,000,000 6,990,000,000 Demand Loss in GDP (Rounded to millions of dollars) 9,000,000 267,000,000 48,000,000 23,000,000 20,000,000 45,000,000 662,000,000 30,000,000 3,000,000 (79,000,000) 58,000,000 196,000,000 8,000,000 - **Industry/Government groups from the 2005 Bureau of Economic Analysis.

BMO Nesbitt Burns has examined the issue on a macroeconomic level and from a Wall Street investor’s perspective. In its most recent paper, BMO Nesbitt Burns uses the CBO model as a basis for its economic impact estimates but adapts the model to account for trade disruption. 117 For example, BMO Nesbitt Burns disagrees with the CBO’s assumption that demand for education would be unaffected by a pandemic. In another difference, BMO Nesbitt Burns believes imports and exports would be significantly impacted.

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Pandemic Flu And The Potential For U.S. Economic Recession A State-by-State Analysis (2007) by Trust For America’s Health Contributors

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