By Reiner K. Huber (auth.), Reiner K. Huber (eds.)
This booklet provides a set of contributions to a workshop on "Long-teY'fr/ improvement of NATO's traditional Forrward safety" to which the GERMAN method discussion board (DSF*» had invited a few 50 platforms analysts and protection specialists of the U.S., the uk, the Federal Republic of Germany and the form Technical Centre. Held in Bonn from 2 to four December 1984, this workshop was once to supply a discussion board for the dis cussion, at a non-political specialist point and within the gentle of obtainable research effects, of proposals for the advance of NATO's traditional safeguard services. additionally, it geared toward arriving at a few recommenda tions as to which of those proposals should be studied extra and what methodological deficiencies needs to be alleviated and data gaps closed for an enough evaluate. the belief to arrange this workshop has been mentioned ever considering 1980 with numerous safeguard structures analysts within the US and the united kingdom who shared the opinion that, so as to the tremendous worldwide build-up of the Soviet hazard on one hand and the stringency of safety assets in so much NATO international locations at the different, there isn't any cause which could allow us to brush aside any suggestion promising development with out cautious study.
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Extra info for Modeling and Analysis of Conventional Defense in Europe: Assessment of Improvement Options
Some of them will look familiar to system analysts with careers dating back to the 1960s or earlier. Figure 10 lists the principles I currently urge on my colleagues. , use maps or graphs in terms of variables the commander can control, charts showing critical windows in time) o Examine all classes of uncertainty, both hard and soft, then filter o Look for good cases as well as bad; seek opportunities as well as disaster o Consider less-than-optimal opponent (and own) actions as well as ideal responses o Remember objectives: improve odds, hedge bets, exploit opponent's problems, identify high-leverage measures o Reflect actual operational considerations rather than analytic simplifications o Eschew mechanical one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity testing, since correlations and analytic aggregations are important o Ultimately, focus on "cases" and alternative paths to them o Use mUltiple baselines, since model sensitivities are often sensitive to the assumed baseline o Resist the allure of Monte Carlo techniques or more detail Fig.
Air forces can provide reinforcement much more quickly than ground forces. Manned assets, in theatre, that could be brought to the ready by a centralised command would offer the highest degree of responsiveness and counter to surprise. 29. Mention has been made of linkages between conventional and TNF forces, the requirement on both sides to deploy the former under the threat of escalation, and the need to retain a viable option for deliberate escalation. It is argued that possession of effective conventional weapons for deep attack can affect the nuclear "threshold" and influence the decision to escalate.
That prediction seems to have been premature but was certainly in the same spirit as the present paper's suggestions. 32 is often impossible for his aides to do so. ;' If big policy-relevant simulations are so bad, why do I even raise the issue? The answer, of course, is that I think their time is coming. Much is possible now that was not possible twenty years ago when technology was more primitive and experience more limited. In particular, complex analyses can now be controlled better and presented more clearly.
Modeling and Analysis of Conventional Defense in Europe: Assessment of Improvement Options by Reiner K. Huber (auth.), Reiner K. Huber (eds.)