Download e-book for iPad: Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer by Jon Scott Armstrong

By Jon Scott Armstrong

ISBN-10: 0471823600

ISBN-13: 9780471823605

Comprehensively protecting all points of long-range forecasting tools proper to the social, behavioral and administration sciences, this e-book is a synthesis of study in economics, sociology, psychology, transportation, schooling, and administration - with occasional references to paintings in medication, meterology, and know-how. It describes a number of forecasting tools, their strengths and weaknesses, and the way to take advantage of them successfully, indicates find out how to constitution a forecasting challenge, and offers unique approaches for comparing forecasting versions that allows you to opt for the ideal procedure for a selected challenge. The ebook attracts upon fabric from nearly 1300 books and articles, and contains unique learn via the writer.

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177) The requirements for a ( Davidsonian) theory of truth for a language are as follows: L 1. For every sentence S of L there is a T sentence. (T) S of L is true if and only if p. 2. The T sentences are all TRUE. 3. The T sentences are all PROVABLE. 4. From a finite number of axioms (recursivity condition). 5. The metalanguage should contain the object language. , for all S) fix the meaning of the "true" for L. p is a logical description (or logical form) of S. Note the equation of logical form and truth conditions, but the claim itself can be understood and assessed without any actual logical forms being displayed.

113) a nd Schank (1975). As Katz puts it, "although the semantic markers are g iven in the orthography o f a natural language, they ca n not be ide n­ tified with the words or expressions of the la nguage used to provide them with suggestive labels" (p. 156). In other words, Katz co nsiders that primes 47 Primitives in Meaning Definition really exis t, qui te independently of the w ords used to describe, locate, or interpret them. T he issues in linguistics ar ose fr om the intr oductio n of a semantic c omp onent into a Chomsky an generative grammar by Katz and F od or (1963).

2. ( 1) Sally opened her eyes. 3. (4) The carpenter opened the wall. 4. (3) Sam opened his book to page 37. 5. (4) The surgeon opened the wound. 31 6. (13) The chairman opened the meeting. 7. (13) The general opened fire. 8. (12) Billy opened a restaurant. " The penalty for denying the sameness of meaning for 1-5 is "being forced to hold the view that the word 'open' is definitely or per­ haps infinitely ambiguous" (Searle 1969). He goes on: In each case the truth conditions marked by the word "open" are different, even though the meaning is the same.

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Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer by Jon Scott Armstrong


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