By J. R. Sargent (auth.), Donald E. Fair, Christian de Boissieu (eds.)
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Extra resources for International Monetary and Financial Integration — The European Dimension
There is decline in demand for the principal export of an area. Workers become unemployed. On seeing this, capital (free of exchange risk) flows in, and the workers become employed in a new industry. However, if the workers became unemployed because they had pushed up wages, then there would be no incentive for capital to flow in; so capital mobility would not remove this difficulty. As Corden observed in his interchange (1973) with Ingram, the source of the disturbance is crucial, just as it is in McKinnon's argument.
There is the case for European monetary union, then. The case is a mixture of economics and politics. It is based on the belief that if we are to have a monetary union with a common currency and one central bank, that bank's discretion will be very restricted. Such restriction is desirable. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The EMS will probably survive for many years as a pegged exchange rate area - a pseudo currency union. It will do so because governments and central banks seem willing to take the necessary actions for such a system to survive.
SO WHAT? Rather more important is to consider why this economic convergence is of interest. It is often forgotten by advocates of increased European integration that convergence of economic performance is not necessarily desirable. It would be hard to persuade Germany that it should strive to converge to the inflation and output performance of the UK, for example. What lies behind the idea that convergence is desirable is the belief that with convergence comes stability - in particular, stability of exchange rates.
International Monetary and Financial Integration — The European Dimension by J. R. Sargent (auth.), Donald E. Fair, Christian de Boissieu (eds.)