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By Henri Theil (auth.), Baldev Raj, Johan Koerts (eds.)

ISBN-10: 9401050635

ISBN-13: 9789401050630

ISBN-10: 9401124108

ISBN-13: 9789401124102

PREFACE TO the gathering PREAMBLE The editors are happy to offer a range of Henri Theil's contributions to economics and econometrics in 3 volumes. In quantity I we've got supplied an summary of Theil's contributions, a short biography, an annotated bibliography of his examine, and a range of released and unpublished articles and chapters in books facing issues in econometrics. quantity II includes Theil's contributions to call for research and knowledge concept. quantity III contains Theil's contributions in monetary coverage and forecasting, and administration technological know-how. the choice of articles is meant to supply examples of Theil's many seminal and course breaking contributions to economics in such components as econometrics, information, call for research, details thought, fiscal coverage research, aggregation idea, forecasting, index numbers, administration technology, sociology, operations learn, larger schooling and masses extra. the gathering can be meant to function a tribute to him at the social gathering of his 67th birthday.! those 3 volumes additionally spotlight a few of Theil's contributions and repair to the occupation as a pacesetter, consultant, administrator, instructor, and researcher. Theil's contributions, which surround many disciplines, were generally pointed out either in medical journals. those citations usually position Theil one of the most sensible 10 researchers (ranked in response to variety of instances mentioned) on the planet in quite a few disciplines.

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Extra resources for Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics: Volume III: Economic Policy and Forecasts, and Management Science

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4) and s is a column vector of nT random elements whose joint distribution is independent of x. 4) implies that the Rx-part of y, does not depend on xl' with t' > t; and hence, partitioning s in T vectors St of n elements each and assuming that R is known to the policy maker, that in period t the subvectors Sl' ... l are known to him as well. 3) can be carried out if the distribution of S is known. In general, this is not the case; so it would be important if it could be shown that the policy maker's decisions, at least those of the first period, Xl (which is his immediate concern), are not affected if he acts under the assumption that y equals Rx plus the mean value of s.

There can be no doubt that these approximations - as well as those to be mentioned in the next sections - are serious; the only apology which we can give is that of the exploratory character of the present study. 3. Desired Values of Noncontrolled Variables As stated in Section 1, we shall consider in particular the period of President Roosevelt's first administration. This period started in the great depression, and it is on this starting point that we shall focus attention in order to formulate certain general targets of economic policy.

The a's, Ws and y's are the structural coefficients, the u's random disturbances. All variables are measured in billions of dollars of 1934 purchasing power, except t which is measured in calendar years. The variables C, I, WI' Y, n, K are considered endogenous; all others, exogenous. Several alternative sets of point estimates of the parameters are available (cf. Klein, 1950, pp. 67-76); in what follows we shall use the estimates that have been derived by means of the method of maximum-likelihood under the assumption that the 1093 Macrodynamic Policy-Making disturbances of the three behavioural equations are uncorrelated.

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Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics: Volume III: Economic Policy and Forecasts, and Management Science by Henri Theil (auth.), Baldev Raj, Johan Koerts (eds.)

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