By Wenpu Li (auth.)
This ebook is a quarterly forecast and research document at the chinese language financial system. it really is released two times a 12 months and offers ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a learn venture on the heart for Macroeconomic learn (CMR) at Xiamen college. according to the CQMM version, the examine group forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and international alternate. whilst it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic regulations in China. as well as assisting readers comprehend China’s financial development and coverage consultant, this e-book has 3 major objectives: to aid readers comprehend China’s monetary functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
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Extra info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2015
3). 10 % in 2015, a 18 2 China’s Macroeconomic Forecast from 2015 to 2016 Fig. 3 The assumptive trend of the growth rate of M2. Data source Assumed by the research team Fig. 4 GDP quarterly growth rate forecasts (on the basis of year-on-year). 3 percentage points over the previous year. 04 % in 2016. Considering the quarterly year-on-year growth rate (Fig. 4), it is forecasted that the world market environment will be improved to some degree. The easing monetary policy and positive ﬁscal policy in domestic market will continue.
The channels of direct ﬁnancing were restricted. The channels of indirect ﬁnancing are barely strong enough to support the expansion of the private investment demand, although the monetary policy has ensured sufﬁcient interbank liquidity and low cost of ﬁnancing. Although the lending rates have been liberalized, banks could still obtain excess proﬁts because of the low deposit rates. Since state-owned banks could obtain funds at a relatively low cost, they lacked the incentive to improve fund service efﬁciency and thus preferred to provide loans to large state-owned enterprises, rather than to private and small enterprises.
We can ﬁnd that: First, the increase of mixed-ownership economy will be beneﬁcial to the potential economic growth rate. 75 years is higher than the result with the initial settings. 15, and then gradually narrows. Secondly, the decline in the elasticity of capital output will signiﬁcantly inhibit the potential growth of the economy in the beginning, and then will accelerate economic growth, but eventually, with the continued decline in the elasticity of capital output, the potential growth rate will further decline.
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2015 by Wenpu Li (auth.)