Read e-book online Bayesian Analysis Made Simple: An Excel GUI for WinBUGS PDF

By Phil Woodward

ISBN-10: 1439839549

ISBN-13: 9781439839546

Although the recognition of the Bayesian method of facts has been turning out to be for years, many nonetheless contemplate it as a little bit esoteric, now not involved in sensible matters, or in general too tricky to understand.

Bayesian research Made uncomplicated is geared toward those that desire to observe Bayesian tools yet both are usually not specialists or don't have the time to create WinBUGS code and ancillary records for each research they adopt. obtainable to even those that wouldn't mostly use Excel, this e-book presents a personalized Excel GUI, instantly valuable to these clients who are looking to have the capacity to speedy observe Bayesian tools with no being distracted via computing or mathematical issues.

From basic NLMs to complicated GLMMs and beyond, Bayesian research Made Simple describes how you can use Excel for an enormous diversity of Bayesian types in an intuitive demeanour available to the statistically savvy person. filled with proper case reports, this ebook is for any info analyst wishing to use Bayesian tips on how to research their info, from specialist statisticians to statistically conscious scientists.

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Additional info for Bayesian Analysis Made Simple: An Excel GUI for WinBUGS (Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series)

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The main focus of this book is the functionality provided by BugsXLA for the fitting of complex statistical models. The final three icons provide this functionality: Bayesian Model Post Plots BugsXLA Options The first of these icons is the place to start when specifying the model to be fitted. It brings up the model specification form, and leads the user through all the steps needed to undertake a Bayesian analysis. 0 toolbar (Excel 2002 or later). 0 toolbar (pre Excel 2002). BugsXLA Overview and Reference Manual 29 ‘Post Plots’ icon provides a tool for plotting imported samples from the inferred posterior distributions.

2004, pp. 121–125). An assumption of exchangeability is often used to justify a prior distribution for a group of parameters that is analogous to the classical random effects assumption, for example, θi ∼ N(0, τ2). These types of parameters are discussed in Chapters 5 and 6 when mixed models are explained. The ultimate aim of many studies is to facilitate a decision, for example, whether to progress a product to the next stage of development, where to focus effort in order to improve a process or whether to adopt a new system following a pilot run.

It will still be necessary to generate a larger number of simulations than would be the case if little autocorrelation was present, but thinning makes it easier to assess convergence. 11 shows the history and autocorrelation plots for this same parameter when one-fifth thinning is applied. Thinning is specified by entering the thinning rate in the text box labeled ‘thin’ on the ‘Sample Monitor Tool’. 11 Autocorrelation plot of parameter with one-fifth thinning. 12 History plot of parameter with three parallel chains.

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Bayesian Analysis Made Simple: An Excel GUI for WinBUGS (Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series) by Phil Woodward

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