Advanced Intelligent Networks by Regis Sbudd J. Bates PDF

By Regis Sbudd J. Bates

ISBN-10: 0071391592

ISBN-13: 9780071391597

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5 The odds may be set at any ratio and may, or may not, have something to do with one’s probabilities. Bookies typically set odds for and against events at a slight discrepancy with their best estimate of the probabilities, for their profit lies in the difference between the odds for and against. While odds and probabilities may deviate, probabilities and fair odds O(·) are strictly interchangeable concepts. 4) 1 + O(h) Thus, if a coin is fair, the probability of heads is 1/2, so the odds in favor of heads are 1:1 (usually described as “50:50”).

The probability of a false positive is 2%. What is the (posterior) probability that the athlete did in fact use steroids, given the positive outcome of the test? 01 (call this option h ); if it isn’t double-headed, then it’s a fair coin (call this option h). , you can’t simply examine both sides of the coin). , what’s the maximum number of tosses until that happens? ) Two cab companies, the Blue and the Green, operate in a given city. Eighty-five percent of the cabs in the city are Blue; the remaining 15% are Green.

Being adult humans), this gives us 1,625,000 eligible males and as many females. If we simplify by supposing that they are all in heterosexual partnerships, that will introduce a slight bias in favor of innocence; if we also simplify by ignoring the possibility of people traveling in cars with friends, this will introduce a larger bias in favor of guilt. The two together give us 1,625,000 available couples, suggesting a prior probability of guilt of 1/1625000. 8% chance of innocence and so a very large probability of a nasty error in judgment.

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Advanced Intelligent Networks by Regis Sbudd J. Bates


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