Download e-book for iPad: A Methodology for Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems by Kurt Weichselberger

By Kurt Weichselberger

ISBN-10: 3540523367

ISBN-13: 9783540523369

In this publication the resultant use of likelihood thought is proposed for dealing with uncertainty in professional platforms. it's proven that equipment violating this advice can have risky outcomes (e.g., the Dempster-Shafer rule and the tactic utilized in MYCIN). the need of a few requisites for an accurate combining of doubtful info in specialist structures is established and appropriate ideas are supplied. the prospect is considered that period estimates are given rather than distinctive information regarding possibilities. For combining info containing period estimates ideas are supplied that are helpful in lots of cases.

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UBn) i i

It demonstrates that the Dempster-Shafer rule cannot be relied upon in this case. 0001 P(E~) : 0 . 0 1 . 0 . 9999 i = 1,2 . 9999 mi(O) =0 , i = 1,2 . 10-s Altogether, according to Dempster-Shafer, the existence of two alarm units has considerably reduced the probability of a failure. 01 . 0 . 99 = [] This demonstrates that the application of the Dempster-Shafer rule is extremely dangerous in these cases: The more alarms go off at the same time, the more stringent is the conclusion that the power plant is in normal state!

That the denominator is enlarged, leads to reduction of those probabilities (or basic probability numbers) for which the numerator remains 51 unchanged, because the concerned events are not involved in the coarsening. Therefore we have to expect larger probabilities (or basic probability numbers) for the events not involved in coarsening, if the combination rule is applied first and coarsening takes place afterwards and smaller ones, if coarsening is done first. 23), the "conservative" combination rule, which does not prescribe reweighting.

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A Methodology for Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems by Kurt Weichselberger

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